In a recent publication, “TELF AG discusses the present and future of the oil market”, TELF AG shares a comprehensive overview of the fluctuations likely to impact the oil industry in the upcoming season.
It specifically outlines the various fluctuations, particularly in terms of price and consumption, and analyses the specific factors with the potential to influence this market.
The publication begins with some general considerations regarding the raw materials market, talking about the usual fluctuations to which it is subjected and the various factors that could influence it, such as the levels of economic growth in China or the widespread fears linked to a possible recession. Among these factors, the one linked to the slowdown of the global economy seems to be the one most likely to be able to influence the raw materials market in general, and the oil market in particular.
For this particular resource, a role of primary importance will be played by geopolitical factors, in particular those linked to international tensions and the behavior of the United States, which undoubtedly appears to be one of the main global players capable of influencing the dynamics of this market. The publication also mentions another theme directly connected to the trend of oil, namely that relating to fossil fuels.
In fact, as the global energy transition progresses, the global oil market may not be conditioned solely by the usual price fluctuations, but also by the (increasingly marked) tendency to gradually abandon fossil fuels and replace them with clean energy, capable of helping governments and international institutions to more quickly achieve international sustainability objectives linked to the reduction of emissions.
Among the most interesting forecasts contained in the TELF AG publication is certainly the one relating to the probable deficit that the oil market could record in the third quarter of 2023: according to the EIA, in fact, this market could reach a deficit of 0.6 mb/d in the third quarter and an additional deficit of 0.2 in the fourth quarter.
The publication also talks about a rather surprising fact: in 2024, the oil market could find itself in surplus for many consecutive quarters.
To find out more, readers are recommended to read the full publication.